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Weekly Recap | May 24, 2021

Weekly Recap | May 24, 2021

May 25, 2021
Weekly Recap

May 17-21, 2021 Recap

Inflation Angst Continues

Benchmark Equities Slip Second Week
The S&P 500 fell fractionally last week, capping its first back-to-back weekly loss since late February as investors continued to fear signs of escalating inflation. Selling pressure started to ease by mid-week however after the Federal Reserve released minutes of their latest policy meeting. Fed officials said they were closely watching economic developments and remain flexible to adjust monetary policy when necessary.

For the Week...
The S&P 500 slipped 0.39% last week, the Dow Industrials fell 0.51% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.33% to snap a four-week losing streak.

Manufacturing Continues to Expand
IHS Markit’s initial reading of U.S. manufacturing activity increased to 61.5 in May, reaching a series record high since recordkeeping began in October 2009, and followed a final reading of 60.5 in April. The services sector activity index also rose to a series record of 70.1 from 64.7 the month prior.

Most Sectors Decline
Six of the S&P 500’s 11 major sectors posted losses last week, with Energy (-2.51%), Industrials (-1.61%) and Materials (-1.40%) falling the most. Real Estate (+0.94%) and Healthcare (+0.75%) gained the most, while Technology (+0.19%) and Consumer Staples (+0.10%) rose the least. Despite the pullback, Energy is still the best performing sector so far this year, up 39.23% YTD.

Treasury Yields Mostly Flat
Treasury bond yields were mostly unchanged last week, with the 10-Year Treasury yield nudging just one basis point lower to end Friday at 1.62%. The benchmark 10-year yield has been trading rangebound between 1.58% and 1.69% so far this month. The U.S. Dollar Index weakened by 0.34% last week.

The Latest from @CeteraIM

Supply Constraints Headwind

Jobless Claims at Pandemic Low

Growth Versus Value Inflection Point?

Economic Calendar

Monday, May 24
Chicago Fed National Activity.

Tuesday, May 25
Case-Shiller Home Prices, New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence.

Wednesday, May 26
Mortgage Activity.

Thursday, May 27
Jobless Claims, 1Q GDP Revision, Durable Goods Orders, Pending Home Sales.

Friday, May 28
Personal Income & Outlays, PCE Inflation, MNI Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) climbed 1.6% in April, importantly rising above the pre-pandemic peak for the first time. The economy is expected to grow at its fastest rate in decades this year, though supply constraints and labor shortages are becoming a potential headwind for growth near-term.

This report is created by Cetera Investment Management LLC. For more insights and information from the team, follow @CeteraIM on Twitter.

About Cetera® Investment Management
Cetera Investment Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser owned by Cetera Financial Group®. Cetera Investment Management provides market perspectives, portfolio guidance, model management, and other investment advice to its affiliated broker-dealers, dually registered broker-dealers and registered investment advisers.

About Cetera Financial Group®
“Cetera Financial Group” refers to the network of independent retail firms encompassing, among others, Cetera Advisors LLC, Cetera Advisor Networks LLC, Cetera Investment Services LLC (marketed as Cetera Financial Institutions or Cetera Investors), Cetera Financial Specialists LLC, and First Allied Securities, Inc. All firms are members FINRA / SIPC. Located at 200 N. Pacific Coast Highway, Suite 1200 El Segundo, CA 90245-5670

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All economic and performance information is historical and not indicative of future results. The market indices discussed are not actively managed. Investors cannot directly invest in unmanaged indices. Please consult your financial advisor for more information.

Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability, and differences in accounting standards.

Glossary

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ.

The S&P 500 is an index of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry grouping (among other factors) designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is meant to reflect the risk/return characteristics of the large cap universe.

The NASDAQ Composite Index includes all domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad based index.

The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership.

The Russell 3000 Index measures the performance of the largest 3,000 U.S. companies representing approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market.

The Russell Midcap Index measures the performance of the mid-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 1000 Index. It includes approximately 800 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership.

The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index, which was originally called the Lehman Aggregate Bond Index, is a broad based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government–related and corporate debt securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency) debt securities that are rated at least Baa3 by Moody’s and BBB- by S&P. Taxable municipals, including Build America bonds and a small amount of foreign bonds traded in U.S. markets are also included. Eligible bonds must have at least one year until final maturity, but in practice the index holdings have a fluctuating average life of around 8.25 years.

The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index measures the USD-denominated, non-investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody's, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below, excluding emerging market debt. Payment-in-kind and bonds with predetermined step-up coupon provisions are also included. Eligible securities must have at least one year until final maturity, but in practice the index holdings has a fluctuating average life of around 6.3 years.

The Bloomberg Barclays US Municipal Bond Index covers the USD-denominated long-term tax exempt bond market. The index has four main sectors: state and local general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds, and prerefunded bonds. Eligible securities must be rated investment grade (Baa3/BBB- or higher) by Moody’s and S&P and have at least one year until final maturity.

The MSCI EAFE Index is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets (Europe, Australasia, Far East) excluding the U.S. and Canada. The Index is market-capitalization weighted.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is designed to measure equity market performance in global emerging markets. It is a float-adjusted market capitalization index.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index is a broadly diversified index that measures 22 exchange-traded futures on physical commodities in five groups (energy, agriculture, industrial metals, precious metals, and livestock), which are weighted to account for economic significance and market liquidity. No single commodity can comprise less than 2% or more than 15% of the index; and no group can represent more than 33% of the index.

The S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index is a sub-index of the S&P GSCI, provides investors with a reliable and publicly available benchmark for investment performance in the crude oil market.

The S&P GSCI Gold Index, a sub-index of the S&P GSCI, provides investors with a reliable and publicly available benchmark tracking the COMEX gold futures market.

The U.S. Dollar Index is a weighted geometric mean that provides a value measure of the United States dollar relative to a basket of major foreign currencies. The index, often carrying a USDX or DXY moniker, started in March 1973, beginning with a value of the U.S. Dollar Index at 100.000.